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Brexit Analysis (GBPUSD): Are you trading the UK Election?

With 2 days before the UK general election we here at Tradeview analyse the top markets which could potentially provide volatility for traders. Everyday leading up to Thursday’s election we look at each market, the fundamentals behind them, whilst breaking down the positioning of technical indicators and where they show potential opportunities. Our analysis should however not be viewed as guidance or advice, just a general breakdown on what could potentially occur. 

Today we are looking at the GBPUSD. Wednesday we look at  FTSE100 and Thursday we will look at both plus the EURGBP.

GBPUSD Analysis:  Daily Chart

After recently reaching a 7- month high against the Dollar, the markets appear as if they are beginning to price in what many expect to be a Boris Johnson and conservative victory in the polls. This may be a result of traders believing a Boris win will effectively get  “Brexit done”, and ending the 3 years of uncertainty. Irrespective of these highs, the technicals show that the price may be overbought at $1.31924, with RSI reaching the 70 mark once again. Could we see a similar occurrence to the last time we thought Brexit was about to get done, but the news changed leading to a short? Or will this Thursday finally end the debate? 

This along with the moving averages, which even though have recently crossed on the upside, of the 10 and 25 day, the chances of a downward swing still exist. If the resistance is held sellers may already be in position. From your own perspective, it will be wise to look at the various timeframes to see how this market is positioned from not only a shorter term, but also longer term view.

Eliman Dambell
Bussines Development

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