Skip to content Skip to footer

Greek Debt Drama May Be Over but We Can Count on Sustained Volatility

With the situation in Greece reaching a finality, markets are now looking for the next source of sustained volatility.

As of early Monday morning we all woke up to a ‘world-wide’ rally following news that Greece and euro creditors had reached a bailout agreement. Bravo and good for them and a few traders I know are relieved to know that Greece will continue to be in the euro zone.
However, outside of providing volatility we haven’t seen in years and even fewer who have lost any sleep worrying about the fate of Greece (no offense and say for affect), but traders HAVE lost sleep while following the movements in the EU/China (Shanghai/S&P minis), which are often more volatile than the moves in the US markets during actual trading hours.
NOTE: I don’t mean to minimize the humanitarian and/or ripple effects of any event(s) that would cause harm in any way, but this Greek situation seems have to come to fruition and “the news is out.” So just like a stock or sector that has been hot for a couple of days the proverbial position has unfolded, so as we say on the trading desk…. NEXT.
Personally, and I am not alone in this, I believe the moves and ‘news’ coming out of the Asian markets provide just as much uncertainty as to what Greece has provided. However, the difference is that Greece has provided more intra-day moves (which is why we play TVIX UVXY), but the closes in the Shanghai Comp have left a bigger impact on the US markets.
Moreover, we have been setting the tone, but things will change in the following weeks as the effect on the strong USD (to put it lightly) will be in the spotlight, as HUGE multi-nationals start reporting earnings this week (GE/HON/JPM/INTC). Apart from the occurrence of another major geo-political event (actually more than likely), the US will take the lead again as earnings come in as the strong USD continues. It’s almost time that we start hearing about the interest rate debate again, that few would argue is not a matter of IF but WHEN Yellen raises the rates.
Now, besides the obvious volatility and trading range that the Greece uncertainty has given us, I wish we had one more week of this, the main reason being…. the moves in the VXX and range in the US markets and S&P minis have been the best in some time. Last Tuesday we had our biggest move from an intra-day low to high since October 2011.
So, let’s keep in mind the company’s report this week: WFC JPM JNJ CSX DAL INTC NFLX GE HON SLB…..to name but a few, which are among the “best of breed” of the respective sectors. I wanted to see how the #’s and reaction to the above mentioned acted not only that day, but in the the subsequent days after these wild futures moves.
Let’s take NFLX for example – NFLX reports numbers and opens up $30 ….it is way better to gauge and absorb how the street reacts to the numbers in a greater trading range than a narrower range. Last quarter when we were in a consolidating uptrend, it was harder, for lack of a better term, to see if the reaction to earnings was a product of the company’s’ #’s or held up because of the uptrending market. So my point is, I wanted this Greece situation to continue for a greater trading range in order to get a better picture of relative strength and relative weakness.
As of now, we are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach and as mentioned we are focusing on the USD and earnings plays while obviously continuing to put more credence than usual on how the European markets close, but until then, the stocks we have been playing at TVMarkets:
 TVIX UVXY
China stocks – JD WB YOKU FXI JKS SINA QIHU BIDU NTES
Casinos – WYNN MGM MPEL LVS
Airlines – DAL AAL LUV
Semi-conductors- QLGC MU TXN SNDK SWKS STX WDC ADI
Cyber-security- CUDA FEYE CYBR
Crude- USO TSO VLO MPC
Individual names: LL Z FB FIT CHK WTW TSLA

MICHAEL VENEZIA
Trader
mvenezia@rhino-report.tradeviewforex.com

follow me on twitter

Tradeview Ltd. is not a portfolio manager or an investment advisor. This Market Report is for informational purposes only. Any statements made or opinions voiced in this Market Report do not constitute investment advice. The Tradeview Ltd. Market Report does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell in the financial markets. Although the information contained in the Market Report comes from trusted sources, Tradeview Ltd. is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, or fitness of such sources. Tradeview Ltd. shall not be responsible for and disclaims all liability for any losses which may be suffered from access and use of the contents of the Tradeview Ltd. Market Report. Trading any financial instrument on margin, using leverage or otherwise involves considerable risk. Therefore, before deciding to participate in any style of trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Consulting with your investment counselor, attorney, accountant or other professional upon whom you rely for guidance as to the appropriateness of an investment in any style of trading is recommended.

Tradeview Ltd.

Is licensed to carry on securities investment business and is regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA) as a full securities broker-dealer. Tradeview conducts business pursuant to the Cayman Islands Securities Investment Business Law (SIBL) and its activities fall under the direct supervision of the Investments and Securities Division of CIMA.
Headquarters: 5th Floor Anderson Square, 64 Shedden Road, Georgetown, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands KY1-1002, BWI.
Website: www.tradeviewforex.com

Tradeview Asia Ltd.

Is licensed and regulated by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (FSA) as a Money Broker, registration number LL15870 licensed to facilitate transactions in foreign exchange pursuant to Labuan Financial Services and Securities Act 2010, the Labuan Companies Act 1990 and the Labuan Business Activity Tax Act 1990.
Headquarters: International Business Financial Centre at Office 5, Jamie Business Center I, Unit F10, First Floor, Paragon Labuan, Jalan Mustapha, 87000 Labuan F.T.
Website: www.tvmgloballtd.com

Tradeview Europe Ltd.

Is licensed as a Category 2 Investment Service Company and is regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). The Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA) is the single regulator for financial services in Malta. MFSA is a fully autonomous public institution and reports to Parliament on an annual basis. The MFSA is a member of the European Banking Authority (EBA), the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) and is a signatory of the Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding with other European regulatory Institutions. Tradeview is authorized to provide financial services across multiple asset classes and is passported in the EU/EEA under MiFID II (EU Markets in Financial Instruments Directive).
Headquarters: 157 Archbishops Street, Valletta VLT Malta 1440.
Website: www.tradeview.eu

Tradeview Financial Markets S.A.C Global

Is authorized to conduct business pursuant to and in compliance with the General Law of Companies (LGS) promulgated by the government of Peru. Tradeview Financial Markets S.A.C is registered with the National Superintendence of Public Registries (SUNARP), company number 13089531. Tradeview Financial Markets S.A.C provides financial services in selected OTC derivative markets in compliance with all applicable government regulations.
Headquarters: Los Mirtos 239 Urb. San Eugenio, Lince, Lima, Perú.
Website: www.tradeviewlatam.com