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Stocks rally as U.S. Election remains too close to call – 5th November

U.S. stock indices rallied for the sixth consecutive day of Thursday. As although the race for the White House is not yet settled investors took comfort that Congress will be split regardless of who wins the Presidency. This should mean major tax increases and regulatory changes are less likely.

Stocks also held gains on the day after the Fed signalled continued long term support for the economy.

Voting results continue to trickle in with former Vice-President Biden appearing to have the inside lane against President Trump.  Biden is holding small leads in Nevada and Arizona where the Trump Campaign is attempting to make inroads, while the situation is reversed in Georgia and Pennsylvania.  

Based on the trends through mid-afternoon it appears that Biden is more likely to reach 270 Electoral College votes, however the Trump Campaign is pushing hard and considering legal action to navigate a narrowing path to a second term.

As of writing, the S&P 500 was up 2.35%, the Dow had gained 1.92% and the NASDAQ was up by 2.61%. In currency markets EUR/USD reached 1.1827, with the dollar index touching its lowest level since May 2018.

Weekly Jobless claims fall

On the eve of the Non-Farm Payrolls report, data released on Thursday showed that weekly jobless claims fell in America.

The report showed that the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits dropped, but only slightly last week, which could signal that the economic recovery is losing steam.

Tomorrow’s NFP figures would shed light on this further, however we could be set for a bearish number as the COVID-19 cases intensified in October.

Claims came in at 751,000, vs 732,000 expected.

BOE increases QE Program

Following on from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England became the second central bank to inject fresh monetary stimulus into its economy this week.

The BOE confirmed that it will be increasing its bond-buying program by £150 billion to a total of £875 billion. 

The bank also went on to confirm that it would be keeping interest rates unchanged, after cuts earlier this year. As a result, the FTSE 100 rose for the sixth consecutive day, gaining 0.39% today.

Quote of the day – “Confidence is not ‘I will profit on this trade.’ Confidence is ‘I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade.

Yvan Byeajee – #USAPoliticalUpdate for Nov. 5th

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