Thursday 3rd October, exactly 4 weeks till Brexit, however it is tomorrow, Friday 4th October which has traders excited. A new month sees the same jobs day cries of potential under or over projections, with 145K the forecasted number of jobs said to have been added in the US non-farm sector in September.
Today’s ISM numbers coming in weaker than expected led to several flash rallies and declines in US related markets. These moves have created further excitement on where potential opportunities could be created, should NFP number surprise or disappoint.
Today’s Tradeview looks at 2 markets in particular.
XAUUSD – 4 Hour Chart – Provided by Tradeview Markets
Hitting a $1,520 high today, Gold has been on a huge tear in the last few days. Trading at a price of $1,460 only 3 days ago, the metal has gained $80 this week alone, so what’s next? The technicals say even with this current bull run, the volumes here are still yet to be overbought. In addition to this, the 10 day Moving average looks as if there could be more upward momentum leading to a crossover with the 50-day MA. Could a weaker than expected NFP number tomorrow see a move which creates a breakout of the current $1,526 resistance? Or is this run at an end?
SP500 – 4 Hour Chart – Provided by Tradeview Markets
Many today called for a potential dead cat bounce after yesterday’s bearish fall in this index and initially those cries weren’t heard.The SP500 continued to fall not too long after the open, hitting a 2-month low of 2850. However buyers piled in and began the reversal and the market now stands at 2900. With NFP tomorrow, will the dead cat bounce take place, or will the floor of 2837 be found? Looking at the moving averages (10/25 day) we see a downwards cross has just taken place, and potential for further crosses still exist, volumes in the SP500 haven’t gone below there current point since the beginning of August. Stronger NFP numbers could be the catalyst for a momentarily rise, but sellers may still be looking to drive prices down further before the eventuality of the SP500 finally breaking it’s record high of 3026.