Trump vs Biden: Election still too close to call

Election night in the United States went the way many had expected, to the very last vote. However, with mail-in ballots in several key states still yet to be counted, market uncertainty remains high.

Donald Trump once again beat odds makers and pollsters by delivering a red wave on Election day, which helped keep him in the race. This despite early voting leaning heavily towards former Vice-President Joe Biden

Biden is now leading the Electoral College 248 to 214, however, some now believe we could be set for recounts and perhaps extended legal battles. This will come as the Trump campaign is set to contest several results, including Wisconsin, which has recently gone to Biden, but is within a 1% threshold needed for a recount. Wisconsin has increased Biden’s chances of securing the 270 figure needed to win, but this is by no measure certain. 

Attention will now turn to Nevada and Michigan where the races are too close to call, but President Trump must come back to win at least one to stop Biden.

With the final result still to be declared, the President tweeted,  “Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the ‘pollsters’ got it completely & historically wrong!”

UK set for double-dip recession

Data released today, showed that the UK is on the cusp of entering a double-dip recession.

This news was broken on the eve of the country beginning its second national lockdown, as a result of rising numbers of COVID-19 cases.

The PMI figures which were reported by IHS Markit,  fell to their lowest level since June, with a reading of 51.4 last month, falling from 56.1 in September. PMI figures track to see if there has been growth or contraction, with the anything below 50 signalling contraction, and above highlighting growth.

The FTSE 100 climbed 1.64% despite the data.

ADP payrolls slow in October

ADP private payrolls within the U.S. grew less than expected last month, as the uncertainty surrounding the elections, rising coronavirus cases, and stimulus tensions impacted the job market.

It was reported on Wednesday that Private payrolls rose by 365,000 in October, after rising 753,000 in September.

Many market commentators had initially forecasted payrolls would grow by 650,000 last month. – #USAPoliticalUpdate for Nov. 4th

Quote of the day – “Dangers of watching every tick are twofold: overtrading and increased chances of prematurely liquidating good positions.”

Jack Schwagger

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Eliman Dambel

Senior Market Analyst